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这个故事情节现在所有的人都应该很熟悉了：⼀种恶性病毒对⼈类展开攻击，造成了巨大的破坏：⽣命损失，经济活动中断以及⼈们需要承受的巨⼤心理压力。现在，随着疫苗的到来，我们终于可以松一口气了，希望在即，可以看到隧道尽头的光亮了。
The storyline of the last two years has been familiar to everyone by now: a vicious virus attacked human kind and caused significant amount of damages: loss of human life, disruption of economic activities, and tremendous psychological stress on the society. Now with the vaccination coming on the scene, we can finally let out a big sigh of relief. We can see the light coming from the end of the tunnel.
真的吗？
Or is it so?
⾃从我开始对营养进行深入研究开始，早在这场流⾏病开始之前，我对⼈类与自然之间关系的理解发⽣了巨大的改变。很多我⼀直认为是无可质疑的真理不再是无可质疑。这次的新冠和疫苗便是很好的例证。
Starting from my deep dive into nutrition, my understanding of our relationship with nature has gone through some seismic shift in the past few years, well before this whole pandemic thing happened. Many truths I have always held as self-evident are no longer beyond doubt. It is the same with this pandemic and vaccination.
我写过⼀篇文章，谈论我们对这次病毒起源及其处理方式的理解是有些问题的。当读者人数达到将近19万时，文章被和谐了。其实我是对的还是错的这并不是关键问题。总是有我是错的这种可能性。但是，将我们的谈话和探索局限于⼀个声音是很危险的。这样的事发生在中国当然不让我震惊。但不仅仅是中国。当前，在整个世界范围内，对有关疫苗⾔论的审查和压制是我所没有见过的。今天，让我们试图撩开⼀些幕纱。
I have written a blog about how our understanding of the origin of the virus and our way of dealing with it could be problematic, but it got deleted when the readership reached about 190k. It does not matter whether I am right or wrong. There is always the possibility that I am wrong. But limiting our intellectual exploration to just one single voice is dangerous, to say the least. Of course it is not shocking this is happening in China, but it is not just China. There has been unprecedented level of censorship on the topic of vaccination around the world. Today let’s unpack it just a little bit.
在探讨疫苗可以做到什么和不能做到什么之前，我们需要先退⼀步，从另⼀个⻆度看看整个故事的发展。
Before we talk about what vaccines do and what they don’t do, we need to dial back and look at the whole situation from a different angle.
在过去的两年中，新冠让人们充满了恐惧。我自己也经历了这种恐惧。但这真的非常有必要吗？如果你的信息来源只是主流媒体的头条新闻，那很可能你会觉着有必要。感染病例的数量在不断增加，人们在失去生命。这难道不让人害怕吗。
So much fear has been instilled in the human psyche in the past two years because of this pandemic. I used to hold a lot of it myself. But is it really justified? You may think so if all you read is mainstream media headlines. The number of infection cases keeps going up, people are dying. That is pretty scary. Isn’t it?
⾸先，作为测试新冠的金标准，PCR（聚合酶链反应），核酸测试，是一个存在着严重缺陷的临床测试⼯具。与许多人的理解相反，PCR测试无法检测到病毒本身，它检测的是病毒的遗传序列。 PCR 测试的发明者，获得化学诺贝尔奖的Kary Mullis 曾经表示，PCR不是⽤来做诊断⼯具的。实际的误报率我们并不知道。我看过各种各样的数字。我很信任的⼀位科学家扎克·布什 （Zach Bush）医⽣的估计约为30％⾄80％。
First of all, the gold standard of the testing methodology PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) is profoundly flawed as a testing tool . Contrary to what many people have assumed, a PCR test cannot detect the virus itself, rather the genetic sequence of a virus. Kary Mullis, the inventor of the PCR test who was awarded the Noble Prize in Chemistry, stated himself that PCR is not intended nor suitable to be used as a diagnostic tool. The actual false positive rate is unknown. There are all sorts of numbers out there. The estimate from a scientist that I follow and trust, Dr. Zach Bush, is around 30% to 80%.
美国的新冠死亡率居于世界前位，这⼀点都不让我奇怪。很多美国人的饮⻝和生活方式非常不健康。但那些数字还是有些误导。我当然并不知道它到底有多准确或多不准确。但我知道的是，在新冠发⽣之前，美国的呼吸道疾病死亡率是七年来最低的。可以预见，在未来几年中，由于 “呼吸道疾病”引起的呼吸道疾病死亡率会有所增加。我还知道，与其他疾病相比，新冠让医院从政府得到更多的经济补偿。如果患者使⽤呼吸机，补偿金额会更多。因此，可以想象某种程度的欺诈是可能存在的。
I am not surprised US has one of the highest mortality rate in the world from covid due to its very unhealthy diet and lifestyle. But its number is still misleading. I don’t claim to know how accurate or inaccurate it is. What I know is, before this pandemic happens, US has the lowest respiratory mortality in seven years. It is predictable there will be an increased mortality due to respiratory diseases in the upcoming years to “catch up”, so to speak. What I also know is, hospitals are reimbursed from the government a lot of more money for treating COVID than treating any other disease. If the patient is on a ventilator, they get even more. So, some degree of fraudulence is totally conceivable.
即便是存在这样的因素，它的死亡率是多少呢？下⾯这个图来自美国疾病防治中心。
Even with all this probable inaccuracy, what is the current estimate of the fatality rate? The following data is from US CDC:
平均存活率约99.99%。 我们内⼼的恐惧和这个数字好像不是特别相符？
On average, it’s about 99.99% non fatal. The amount of fear existing in the general population and these numbers don’t seem to square with each other.
全世界投入了巨大的资源来开发疫苗应对这种病毒。可疫苗真的是我们以为的那个救世主吗？要了解疫苗的有效性，先让我们重新审视⼀下我们对病毒的了解。
So we’re putting in enormous resources of the world to develop vaccines to deal with this virus. Are they even going to do what we think they are going to do? To understand how effective a vaccine is, let’s first reexamine our understanding of what a virus is.
当我围绕营养和疫苗等问题进⾏研究时，我对那些持两种极端态度的⼈都比较持谨慎。当你过于坚信⼀种想法或信念时，很容易引起偏⻅。所以我比较倾向于听取那些有学术实力，理念比较居中，而且没有什么个人目的的人。扎克·布什医⽣就是其中之⼀。他是在内分泌学，内科医学和临终关怀医学三个领域获得认证的医生。他放弃了对癌症治疗的研究，致力于理解人类与环境之间的共生关系。他的那种穿行于不同领域，将不同的事物连接起来的能力，以及对⼈类免疫学和病毒学的深刻理解帮助我解决了很多困惑。
When I do my research around nutrition and issues like vaccines, I am cautious of the people who are too far out on the both ends of the spectrums. When you are too invested in one idea or belief, it is very easy to invite bias. Instead I tend to listen to people in the middle of the road with good credentials and without agendas. One of those people is Dr. Zach Bush. Board certified in three areas of medicine: endocrinology, internal medicine, and hospice care, he gave up his research on cancer treatment and has focused on the symbiotic relationship between humans and the environment. His ability to weave through different issues connecting the dots and his depth of understanding of human immunology and virology have helped me a lot in detangling my confusions.
下⾯这段布什医生的话会帮你理解什么是病毒以及它们对人类健康和平衡的重要性。
To understand what viruses are and how important they are to human health and balance, I quote Dr. Bush:
“没有它们，我们人类就不会存在。空气中大约有10的31次方种病毒（即1之后为31个零，大约是整个宇宙中恒星数量的1000万倍），海洋中⼤约有10的31次方种病毒，在土壤里的大致相同……7天大的婴儿每克粪便中含有10的8次方种病毒……我们现在已经知道，至少50％的⼈类基因直接来⾃于未经编辑的病毒。
“We humans would not have existed without them. There are about 10 to 31 (that is 31 zeros after 1, about 10 million times more than the number of stars in the entire universe) viruses in the air, about another 10 to 31 viruses in the ocean, and about the same in the soil……A single gram of stool from a baby at seven days of age has 10 to the 8 viruses in it…… We now have categorized at least 50% of the human genes as having come directly from an unedited insert from a virus.
病毒是⼀组基因层面的信息包，通过空气，水，土壤等系统进行传递……进⼊⼈类系统时，这些病毒应该做的是更新人类的基因组。这就是为什么大多数携带这种病毒的人没有症状或症状较轻。但是，当身体无法正常运行时，它对病毒的反应和预期的就不会⼀样。
A virus is a package of information at the genetic level that is transferred through the air, water, soil systems…… What these viruses are supposed to do when getting into human system is to update the genome. That’s why majority of the people with the viruses are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. But when the body is not functioning normally, it does not act to the viruses the way it is supposed to.
我们在攻击那个在地球上创造了⼈类生命的东⻄。如果我们的科学态度⼀直是这种战争心态，我们在挖掘自己的墓⽳。
We have vilified the very thing that has built human life on the planet. And if we continue to adopt a scientific attitude of that warfare mentality on the very thing that built us, we will create our own demise.
我们必须谦卑地认识到，数百年来的细菌学理论让我们对抗生素，抗病毒药和疫苗这些方法深信不疑，其实我们错误地理解了，破坏了我们的⼈体是如何运作的。如果我们想要在未来七十年内防止⼈类可能的灭绝，我们需要迅速地扭转我们的科学思维，我们要意识到，人类和微生物群是共生的，微生物群将⼀直都在让⼈类更具弹性，更具适应力，并且更智慧。如果我们不相信这⼀点，那么我们就需要制造越来越强⼤的针对微⽣物群的核武器，并最终消灭地球上所有的生命， 这就是我们现在正在做的事情。
We have to humbly recognize at this point that in our hundreds of years of germ theory, applied to our belief in antibiotics, antivirals, and vaccines, and all of these mechanisms, we have mistakenly undermined the way in which biology happens. We need to rapidly, if we’re going to prevent our own extinction event in the next seven decades, we’re going to need to envision a whole new scientific paradigm in which we are always in relationship with the microbiome at every level and we are trusting that the microbiome is always going to make us more intelligent and more resilient and more adaptive than we were before that experience. If we dont trust that, then we need to build bigger and bigger nuclear weapons against the microbiome and ultimately annihilate all life on earth, which is what were doing right now.”
病毒并不是要摧毁我们的敌⼈。它们是我们的身体与这个毒性不断增加的世界之间取得平衡所需要的信息更新。使⽤疫苗来应对病毒就像使用抗⽣素来应对细菌⼀样：战⽃艰险，而我们注定失败，因为⼈类永远无法超越⼤⾃然，因为我们就是大自然的⼀部分。
Viruses are not our enemy that is bent on destroying us. They are the update we need for our bodies to come into balance with the increasingly toxic world around us. Using vaccinations to deal with viruses are quite like using antibiotics to deal with bacteria: we are fighting a dangerous and losing battle, because nature can never be outsmarted by humans, because we are part of nature.
大多数人对疫苗的理解是，⼀旦接种了疫苗，我们就安全了。其实不是，要了解为什么, 我们得说⼀说我们的免疫系统。
The impression most people have about vaccines is, once we are vaccinated, we are safe. Not so fast. To understand why, let’s dig a little deeper into our immune system.
我们有两种类型，或者说两个步骤的免疫系统：先天免疫系统和适应性免疫系统。先天免疫系统就像派对的保镖⼀样，决定谁可以进来，谁不能进来。正是这种每秒钟，每分钟都需要做决定的调节系统控制着⼈体利⽤基因组信息的方式，包括来自病毒的信息。适应性免疫系统位于下游。它负责处理先天免疫系统的决定带来的后果。就病毒而⾔，如果先天免疫系统决定接纳病毒⽽不是排斥病毒，适应性免疫系统不会去处理病毒本身，而是处理病毒产生的蛋白质。
We have two types, or two steps of immune system: innate immune system and adaptive immune system. The innate immune system is like a party bouncer, dictating who can come in and who cannot. It is this second to second, minute to minute regulatory system that controls the way the body utilizes genomic information, such as information from the viruses. The adaptive immune system is more downstream. It has to deal with the innate immune system’s decision. In the case of a virus, it does not deal with the virus itself, but with the proteins produced by the virus, if the innate immune system decides to take the virus in, instead of rejecting it.
疫苗的作用，无论是灭活疫苗（中国）还是核酸疫苗（美国），其目的都是产生抗体来杀死⽣产蛋白质的细胞。而生产蛋白质是⼀种在下游进行的活动，因为病毒已经不在⼈体了。是的，病毒只在你的体内停留几天，然后就没有了。当你出现那些不适的症状时，那是你的适应性免疫系统在⼯作，在尝试与先天免疫系统决定接收的基因信息取得平衡。抗体在你最初接触病毒后的三到五周才能形成。
What a vaccine does, whether it is an inactivated vaccine (China) or nucleic acid vaccine (US), its objective is to produce antibodies to kill the cells that produces the proteins. This activity happens way downstream, when the virus is already out of your system. Yes, a virus is out of your body within a few days after you come into contact with it. When you develop all these nasty symptoms, that is when your adaptive immune system is working, trying to get into balance with the new genetic information that is taken in by the innate immune system. Antibodies won’t develop until three to five weeks after your first contact with the virus.
因此，疫苗并不会让你免于感染病毒或传播病毒，因为疫苗抗体的产⽣与病毒是否进入和离开你的身体没有任何关系。疫苗的作用是减轻严重症状的可能性，减少致命性。
Therefore, a vaccine does not protect you from either getting the virus, or spreading the virus, because antibodies don’t have anything to do with the virus getting in and out of your body. What a vaccine does is to lessen the symptoms associated with the adaptation process to make it less lethal.
认为你⼀旦打了疫苗就可以歌舞升平了，是比较危险的。
To think you are fully protected once you are vaccinated and you can go out partying is quite dangerous.
即使疫苗不能提供全⾯的保护，但至少可以减少致命性，为什么会引起那么多争议和审查？因为它潜在的⻓期风险。
So even if it does not offer full protection, but makes it less lethal, why are vaccines are becoming such a controversial and censored issue? Because the potential long term risks associated with vaccination.
就只说当前的新冠疫苗，美国和世界上⼤部分地区使⽤的mRNA疫苗是⼀种非常新型的疫苗。引用世界卫⽣组织的话：
If we just focus on this particular COVID vaccine, the mRNA vaccine used in US and a big part of the world is a very new type of vaccine. To quote WHO:
“核酸⽅法是开发疫苗的新方法。在新冠流⾏之前，还没有任何⼀种产品被批准过可以在⼈身上使⽤。”
“The nucleic acid approach is a new way of developing vaccines. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, none had yet been through the full approvals process for use in humans”.
疫苗的作用是将信使RNA输送到你的身体，主要是肺部。RNA是由DNA转换过来的基因指令。你的细胞接受到这个指令，有可能决定开始制造蛋⽩质，然后你的免疫系统会看到这个蛋白质，于是开始产⽣抗体。因为这个技术太新了，所以问题之⼀是：接种疫苗的每个⼈都会生产预期的蛋白质吗？
What the vaccine does is to deliver a messenger RNA into your system, mostly lungs. RNA is basically a genetic instruction transcribed from DNA. Your cells receive this instruction, and decide to make proteins, then your immune system sees it and starts producing antibodies. Because it is so new, one of the questions is: is everybody receiving the vaccine going to produce proteins as expected?
让人更为担⼼的问题是：有哪些⻓期的我们会意想不到的后果？
The more concerning question is: are there long term unintended consequences?
可能会有。在世界范围内，开始出现越来越多的⾃身免疫疾病（我们的免疫系统攻击我们自己的器官），包括1型糖尿病，类风湿性关节炎，多发性硬化症，桥本甲状腺炎等。⼀些科学家认为这种现象与疫苗的⼴泛使⽤有关。我不知道这是不是真的，但是对我来说这⾄少是可能的。我们的免疫系统是你可以想象到的最复杂，最负监管性的系统之⼀。我们⽬前对它的理解就像⼤海中的⼀滴水。当我们认为我们可以操纵我们的免疫系统，让它乖乖服从我们的指令时，我们并没有意识到它可能造成的风险。过度敏感，过度活跃的免疫系统并不是⼀件好事。 引⽤扎克·布什医生的话：
There might be. The world has seen a growing number of autoimmune diseases (our immune system attacking our own organs), including type 1 diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, Hashimoto’s thyroiditis, etc. Some scientists have linked this to the widespread use of vaccinations around the world. I don’t know if this true, but it makes intuitive sense to me. Our immune system is one of the most complicated and most regulated systems you can ever imagine. Our current understanding of it is like a drop in the ocean. When we think we can maneuver nature and trick our system into obedience, we take on risks we may not be fully aware of. An oversensitive and overactive immune system may not be a good thing after all. To quote Zach Bush:
“在未来五年内，我们将会看到的⾃身免疫性疾病的数量可能⾮常严重……我相信，全球⼈类的免疫系统将会受到毁灭性的影响。随着我们的免疫系统越来越多地被我们⾃身的细胞激活，我们作为⼈类的这种身份认同会受到挑战。”
“The amount of autoimmune disease that we could see come out in the next five years could be devastating……Im very confident that were going to have a devastating effect on global immunity and its intelligence to who we are. We are losing our self identity as human as our immune system gets more and more activated to our own cells.”
关于疫苗的误解之所以这么普遍，部分原因和主流媒体有关。我在写这篇⽂章的时候，看到了CNN的⼀个文章标题，意思是，随着美国疫苗接种率的提⾼，将在夏天获得群体免疫。我不知道应该笑，还是应该难过。
The prevalence of misunderstanding about vaccination is partly a result of the mainstream narrative. When I am writing this blog, I saw a headline from CNN along the line: As the rate of vaccination increases in US, we’ll get to herd immunity by the summer. I don’t know if I should laugh, or if I should be sad.
戴尔·哈里森（Dale Harrison）是生物技术行业的高级主管，在这个领域工作20多年，在⽣物研究和分子诊断领域拥有丰富的经验。他并不是反对疫苗的人，并且计划接种疫苗。这是他对群体免疫的评价：
Dale Harrison is a senior executive working in the biotech industry for more than 20 years, with vast amount of experience in leading research and molecular diagnostics. He is not someone against vaccination, and plans to be vaccinated once it is available to his age group. Here is what he says about herd immunity:
“但是，基于我对数据的了解以及对基本病毒学以及传染病的⼯作原理的理解，我认为可能没有群体免疫的可能性。” 对于群体免疫，需要四个因素的同时发⽣，你需要⼀种有效的疫苗，可以提供持久的终身免疫保护……你需要接种⼀定比例的人口，传染性越高， 需要接种的百分比就越高……对于新冠，根据最新变种的R需求估计，需要接种疫苗的人口在90％以上……群体免疫力的第三个条件是必须有完全免疫的效果，因为你需要能够停⽌传播……然后，没有被广泛讨论的第四个条件是，动物不具备传染能力。”
“But my look at the data and my understanding of the underlying virology and how infectious disease works, what I see is probably no possibility of herd immunity. If you think about herd immunity, you really need four things for that to occur, so you need an effective vaccine that’s going to offer durable lifetime immune protection……You need a critical percentage of the population to be vaccinated, and the more infectious the disease, the higher that percentage is……with COVID, So based on the estimates of the R-nought of this new variant, we’re going to need north of 90% of the population vaccinated……the third condition for herd immunity is the vaccine has to confer sterilize and immunity because you need to be able to stop the transmission……Then the fourth thing that isn’t talked about as much is that the virus needs to not have an animal reservoir.”
那么，我们怎么可能会达到全体免疫呢？答案是我们不会。不管有没有疫苗，这种病毒都将在夏天或今年晚些时候停止破坏，这不是因为疫苗帮助我们达到了所谓的“群体免疫”，⽽是因为我们已经与之取得了平衡。
So how in the world are we ever going to get to herd immunity with COVID? The answer is we don’t. This virus will stop causing disruptions to our lives by the summer, or later this year, with or without vaccines, not because we reached a so-called “herd immunity” with the help of vaccination, but because we have come into balance with it.
如果你觉得这些东⻄让你更加困惑，而且难以置信，你不是唯⼀的⼀个。我本⼈经历了很多认知挑战，现在仍然在经历。怎么可能整个世界都是错的呢？那些病毒学家，流⾏病学家，免疫学专家，哈佛大学和普林斯顿大学毕业的专家怎么会错呢？我曾经竭尽全力确保我的女儿接种了各种疫苗，甚⾄那些非强制性的。那样做怎么会错呢？
If you find all this confusing and overwhelming and hard to believe, you are not alone. I’ve gone through a lot of mental turmoil myself, and I’m still going through it. How can the world be wrong? How can all those virologist, epidemiologists, immunologies, those Harvard and Princeton educated experts be wrong? I have gone out of my way to make sure my daughter gets vaccinated, even for those diseases not mandated. How can that be wrong?
但我有可能是错的。整个世界也有可能是错的。⽤布什医生的话，我们可以“成为同谋，但并不愚蠢……我们可以以⼀种聪明的方式，陷于⼀个陷阱”。 世界错过不止⼀次。我们曾经相信地球是平的，我们曾经相信地球是宇宙的中心。现在，我们继续着人类是⽣物体中心这样的信仰，并且试图摧毁⼀切似乎阻挡我们的东西。这种傲慢让我们无视我们需要和大自然保持平衡，而不是去战斗和摧毁它这样的事实。病毒是自然界对这个星球日益增加的毒素做出的反应之一。是为了更新我们的基因组，让我们与这个世界时时刻刻保持平衡。不断恶化的⼈类健康使我们更容易受到这种更新的负⾯影响。我们该醒醒了。
But the possibility is there that I might be wrong. The possibility is there that the whole world might be wrong. Using Dr. Bush’s words, we can“be complicit without being stupid…… in an intelligent fashion, we can be stuck in a trap”. The world has been wrong more than once. We used to believe the earth was flat, we used to believe earth was the center of the universe. Now we’re hanging on to the belief that we humans are at the center of biology, and we try to annihilate and engineer everything out of our way. This hubris made us completely blind to the fact that, nature is something we need to be in balance with, not something to fight and conquer. Viruses are part of nature’s responses to the increasing level of toxicity we have put on this planet. They are there to update our genome to make us in balance with the increasingly toxic world. The deteriorating human health makes us more vulnerable to this update. We as humans need to wake up to that fact.
为了让画⾯更全⼀点，我⽆妨把这个也写出来吧：在大多数国家，制药公司对于疫苗是可以无责的。这就是说，如果你因为疫苗接种而受伤或在健康方面受到任何伤害，制作疫苗的制药公司将不承担任何责任。你得去政府那里告状，寻求赔付。在⽀出的数额⽅⾯，制药公司是美国排名第⼀的游说集团：花在游说政客上的钱平均每年超过2亿美元。但这与它在媒体上的广告⽀出相比则相形见绌: 2020年制药公司的⼴告⽀出超过90亿美元。
Just to add more perspectives, I am going to throw this out there: In most countries, pharmaceutical companies are indemnified when it comes to vaccination. That means, if you get injured or have any adverse health effect from the vaccination, the pharmaceutical companies who made the vaccine are not liable. You have to to go to the government to make your case. Pharmaceutical companies are the number one lobbying group in the US in terms of its spending: more than $ 200 million per year on average. But that pales in comparison to its advertisement spending on digital media: more than $ 9 billion in 2020.
不管做任何决定，我们都要看其相对的风险和益处。疫苗对某些人来说可能是必要的。但是我希望这篇⽂章可以帮助你清理⼀些误解，做出最适合自己的决定。
For any decision we make in life, it comes down to its risk relative to its benefit. Vaccines may make sense for some people. But I hope this blog can help you dispel some of the myths and help you make your own decision.
最后，对于我们的个人健康，我认为，正确的饮食，充足的睡眠，定期运动，经常到大自然里去，有⼀个让你有成就感的⼯作或者追求，可以滋养你的⼈际关系，爱自己，接纳自己，与自己和平相处，这些才是最好的免疫防护。
Finally, for our personal health, I believe, eating right, getting plenty of restorative sleep, moving around regularly, being in nature often, having fulfilling careers or causes, having nourishing relationships, loving yourself, be at peace with yourself, are the best protection and immunity defense you can ever have.
